Driving Factors and Future Scenario Predictions of Urban Household Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China

学生名:王 田

研究テーマ:Driving Factors and Future Scenario Predictions of Urban Household Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China

(中国都市家庭のエネルギー消費と炭素排出の駆動要因および将来シナリオ予測)

入学年月:2022.10

修了年月:2025.03

取得学位:博士（工学）

論文概要:This study systematically analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of household energy consumption and carbon emissions at the urban scale in China. Furthermore, through scenario analysis models, it reveals the dynamic changes in future urban household carbon emissions, providing valuable insights for identifying effective carbon reduction measures and supporting China’s "dual carbon" goals.
Chapter 1: Research Background and Introduction. This chapter provides an overview of the current state of global climate change and delves into the complex relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and global warming. It then focuses on analyzing the status of energy consumption and carbon emissions across various sectors in China, with a particular emphasis on the household sector’s energy consumption and its contribution to carbon emissions.
Chapter 2: Literature Review. This chapter systematically reviews the research related to household energy consumption and carbon emissions combines with bibliometric analysis. It offers a comprehensive academic overview of the field, providing a solid foundation for the in-depth discussions in subsequent chapters.
Chapter 3: Research Subjects and Methodology. This chapter introduces the research objects and the accounting boundaries of household end-use energy consumption (HEEC) and carbon emission. Additionally, it outlines the accounting & analysis methods.
Chapter 4: Analysis of HEEC and carbon emissions in urban area. Based on the developed detailed models, this chapter reveals the consumption patterns of HEEC of urban area in China and highlights the variations between provinces. Furthermore, carbon emissions are calculated using carbon emission coefficients and carbon intensity methods.
Chapter 5: Analysis of the Driving Factors of HEEC in urban area. Using correlation analysis and LMDI decomposition analysis, this chapter conducts an in-depth discussion of the factors influencing HEEC in China.
Chapter 6: Dynamic scenario evolution of urban household carbon emissions. It provides an in-depth analysis of future development trends and potential scenarios by considering the current development status of various provinces and municipalities, as well as the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision. Based on both socio-economic and technological change perspectives, a dynamic scenario model of household carbon emissions was established. The trajectories of urban household carbon emissions in 30 provinces were projected, and the potential for urban households to reduce carbon emissions in the future was explored in detail.
Chapter 7: Conclusions and Prospect.