Simulation and Assessment of Urban Environment Based on Geographic Information System and System Dynamics Model

学生名:官 冬傑
研究テーマ:Simulation and Assessment of Urban Environment Based on Geographic Information System and System Dynamics Model
地理情報及びシステム分析法を用いた都市環境のシミュレーションと総合評価に関する研究
入学年月:2007.10
修了年月:2009.09
取得学位:博士（工学）
論文概要:Environment and development are two worldwide-concerned core issues and have attracted particular concern, since ecological environment is the most fundamental condition for human being’s existence and development, as well as the base for development of economy and society. Accompanied with the rapid progress of urbanization and the advancement of social economy, global and/or regional ecological environmental problems (eg. greenhouse effect, water resource and pollution, acid rain, biodiversity decline, soil and water erosion, land desertification, et.al) have been growing serious. Because of sustainability and extendibility of these problems, ecological environment on which human being do depend has been deteriorated; resource has gradually been exhausted; natural disasters have frequently occurred; ecological environment capacity has rapidly been diminished. Therefore, study on the urban ecological environment is evidently significant and meaningful for economic development, human health and social sustainability.
This thesis focuses on simulation and evaluation of urban ecological environment with the methodologies of geographic information system and system dynamics and develops some feasible and scientific research tools for evaluating the environmental issues and contributing to environmental management. On efficient basis of the investigation and theory analysis towards the present conditions, the application researches on several typical ecosystems are executed.
In chapter 1, PREVIOUS STUDY AND PURPOSE OF THE STUDY, research background and significance of urban ecological environment are summarized. In addition, the significance of program and evaluation on the urban ecological environment is described and the related studies have been reviewed. Successively, motivation and goal of this study are proposed.
In chapter 2, THEORY AND RESEARCH METHOD OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT, firstly, the concept and application scope of geographic information system are introduced. Meanwhile, developing history together with theory and methods for system dynamics model are also described. Finally, this thesis presents a loose-coupled assessment method of urban ecological environment through integrating the merits and demerits of both the SD model and the GIS model. The requirement, conceptual framework and integration component for the association between SD and GIS are discussed in detail.
In chapter 3, SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DIVISION OF URBAN ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT BASED ON GIS TECHNOLOGY, GIS technology is employed to analyze spatial distribution and division of urban ecological environment indicators in Chongqing. Firstly, an indicator system of urban ecological environment is established in the aspects of economy-society, resource and environment. Secondly, spatial distribution of each indicator is established based on data analysis model of grid. Finally, comprehensive division of urban ecological environment is performed in Chongqing according to spatial distribution results of indicators.
In chapter 4, INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT IN CHONGQING, this chapter has brought forth a set of relatively integrated assessment indices to assess the health level of an urban ecosystem. Also, entropy weight method is employed to endow weight to index; fuzzy mathematics is subsequently utilized to establish an assessment model. Using this model, the chapter takes Chongqing in China as a case study to perform the comparison assessment among cities, the yearly dynamic change assessment and the present state assessment.
In chapter 5, DYNAMIC CHANGE ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF URBAN LAND USE IN JAPAN, based on four phases of TM images acquired in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, this chapter takes Kitakyushu in Japan as a study objective to analyze spatial change of land use and corresponding effects on environmental issues guided by landscape ecology theory in virtue of combining technology of Remote Sensing with GIS. In addition, this chapter clarifies the dynamic change and transformation of various land use types with Fukuoka in Japan as a case. Firstly, the characteristics of quantitative and spatial change of land use in the past 29 years are depicted. Secondly, fluctuation of land use extent is evaluated by a dynamic change model. Finally, a transfer matrix of Markov is applied to analyze the transferring process of each land use type in the studied period and to forecast the tendency of future land use change.
In chapter 6, EXTENT CHANGE ANALYSIS AND FORCAST OF URBAN LAND USE CHANGE IN FUKUOKA, during the studied period of 1976-2005, both area and spatial distribution of every land use type in Fukuoka exhibited some changes to different extents. Land use extent in Fukuoka was situated at a developing period from intensive use extent to urban use type. Forecast results of land-use changes in the period of 2005-2053 show that the areas of agricultural land, forestland and unused land will still be decreased at slow speeds; build-up land and public land will annually increase; change of water body area will continually keep stable. Moreover, land use extent in the near future will be inclined to urban use type, and transferring speed of land use extent obviously becomes slow, which induces that it will take a long time for land use extent to access the urban use type.
In chapter 7, SIMULATION AND DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT BASED ON SD MODEL, according to theory and methodology of system dynamics, this chapter discusses the programming of economy - resource - environment, and develops an SD model by which several typical scenarios are proposed for comparative analysis. The optimal measurement is suggested in excellent coincidence with sustainable development of Chongqing’s economy, resource and environment system. Firstly, economy - resource - environment system in Chongqing is characteristic of complexity, nonlinearity and time – variation, thus, SD model is applicable to serve as an analysis tool due to its merits. Moreover, the historic test and analysis on sensitivity degree indicate that the SD model is reliable to elucidate the causal feedback relationship and dynamic behavior of urban economy - resource - environment system to a certain extent. Secondly, four various scenarios generate significant differences in the developing tendencies of economic development, resource consumption, and environmental issues. Consequently, the four development modes have respective priorities and obvious developing drawbacks. Thirdly, under the considerations of development features and regional differences, as well as regular discipline on urbanization, a coordinated combination of environmental mode and technology mode is believed to realize sustainable development of economy - resource - environment system. Finally, the chapter took Chongqing in China as a case study to carry out carries out dynamic assessment for four type’s development scenarios of urban ecological environment in the future. Assessment results indicate that the technology development mode makes economy-society, resource and ecological environment harmonious development, it’ll lead to system coming into good circulation, so the system sustainable level always keep on the higher grade.
In Chapter 8, CONCLUSIONS, the whole summary of each chapter has been presented.