Carbon Emission Prediction and Driving Force Analysis in the Construction Industry at the City Level

学生名:赵 秦枫

研究テーマ:Carbon Emission Prediction and Driving Force Analysis in the Construction Industry at the City Level

(都市レベルにおける建設業の二酸化炭素排出量の予測と要因分析に関する研究)

入学年月:2020.10

修了年月:2023.09

取得学位:博士（工学）

論文概要:
This study focuses on the materialization and demolition processes within the construction industry, examining carbon emission trajectory and key driving factors within a city scale. Specifically, representative cities at different stages of development, namely Hangzhou in China and Kitakyushu in Japan, are selected to explore the potential for decarbonizing the construction industry and achieving carbon neutrality. The study takes into account the synergistic decarbonization with upstream sectors and the synergistic carbon reduction with downstream waste recycling sectors, providing corresponding recommendations in light of these perspectives.
Chapter 1 provides an overview of the current global climate change scenario, investigates the overall carbon emissions and building-related carbon emissions across different nations. By examining the sources of CECI, it underscores the imperative of active support from upstream and downstream sectors in reducing carbon emissions in the construction industry.
Chapter 2 aims to provide an overview of the existing research on CECI by bibliometric analysis and manual review.
Chapter 3 introduces the two research objects and the carbon emission accounting & analysis methods.
Chapter 4 quantitatively evaluates the CECI of Hangzhou and Kitakyushu. The analysis tracks the sources of direct CECI and examines the trajectory of indirect CECI. The LMDI method decomposes the carbon emission increment into different factors, identifying the influences on CECI changes and reduction pathways.
Chapter 5 explores the synergistic decarbonization potential of the construction industry and upstream sectors. A building stock flow model is constructed to estimate building demand and new construction area under 9 scenarios. A process-based life cycle assessment method is employed to calculate Materialization Stage Carbon Emissions (MSCE) in the construction industry. The core influencing factors of MSCE were identified and the potential for decarbonization in the construction industry is explored.
Chapter 6 delves into the synergy between the construction and waste recycling sectors in decarbonization efforts. Through a comprehensive analysis of the waste treatment and recycling process, the carbon emissions of the life cycle of C&D waste were evaluated, the potential carbon reduction contribution of the waste recycling in Kitakyushu were calculated.
Chapter 7 provides a concise summary of the entire thesis and discusses the future work of research on CECI.